The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, and the National Emergency Management Agency have all identified July through September as the period of greatest flood risk for Lagos this year, suggesting that the recent rainfall could be an early indication of what lies ahead during the peak of the rainy season.

NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, released in February, forecast above-normal rainfall across Lagos, with a delayed end to the rainy season.

The agency projected annual rainfall of up to 2,010mm in the Badagry Division and an average of 1,965mm across the state’s 20 local government areas.

The forecast was partly linked to prevailing climate conditions, including a weak La Niña at the beginning of the year and a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase expected through mid-year, which contributed to projections of an early onset and late cessation of rainfall.

NIHSA’s 2026 Annual Flood Outlook, presented at the Presidential Villa in April, listed Lagos among the 33 states at high flood risk, identifying flash flooding, riverine flooding, and coastal tidal surges as the three major threats confronting the state.